The Economist Intelligence Unit’s recent country report on Nigeria predicts that President Bola Tinubu’s victory will not be overturned by the Supreme Court. Despite winning the February presidential election with only 36.6 percent of the vote, the result is being contested in court, but the EIU believes it won’t be overturned based on historical precedent. The report highlights how Tinubu, despite his low popularity, has initiated significant market reforms in Nigerian history. However, as his political capital erodes, the report expects his reform agenda to lose momentum. Tinubu’s policies, such as fixing Nigeria’s exchange rate problem and removing fuel subsidies, may lead to short-term pain for consumers. The report warns of the potential for mass unrest due to Nigeria’s existing security crises, high unemployment, and widespread poverty. Tinubu’s path to the presidency, with cross-regional appeal, is noted, but his selection of a Muslim running mate may alienate him from the Christian-majority south. Nigeria’s fluid politics and party allegiances are also acknowledged by the analysts.
