The highly skilled, intellectual, and, by some reports, perpetually confident Nasir el-Rufai has been unexpectedly hindered by a questionable security report, casting doubt on his potential to be the contemporary savior of Nigeria’s deteriorating power sector.
With the average domestic power supply to Nigerian households and businesses now barely reaching 3,000MW (with an additional 500MW-700MW being exported), the power supply situation in Nigeria has regressed to levels not seen since 2011, falling significantly below even the worst periods during the tenure of the disgraced former President Muhammadu Buhari.
The sector’s debt has surged well past $2 billion, and the situation is worsening due to adjustments in FX rates, which have an impact on gas prices. In the absence of proper oversight for the sector from the government, Nigerians must now brace themselves for their most dreadful apprehensions to materialize.
Nasir el-Rufai, seemingly one of the most well-prepared candidates for a future cabinet under President Bola Tinubu, was initially expected to hit the ground running based on his capabilities, as now revealed.
Sources within the gas and electricity sectors confirm that he has spent the past six weeks engaging with various public and private sector entities, as well as consultants, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current challenges and opportunities within Nigeria’s gas and power value chain.
They affirm that he comprehensively understood the intricate web of governance, commercial, and financial factors responsible for the policy, behavioral, engineering, and financial shortcomings that currently hinder both the natural gas and electricity sectors, inextricably linked in their destiny, for better or worse.
However, a combination of political forces, fearing the former Governor of Kaduna State, and influential individuals with access to the president, who wish to avoid a powerful figure near the petroleum sector, have effectively halted his ambitions to revamp the power sector. This represents a significant blow to el-Rufai’s self-esteem and current political stature, but it could potentially translate into an infinitely more significant loss for Nigeria and its faltering power sector.
So, what do we know? Tinubu personally and publicly invited el-Rufai to join his cabinet, expressing this desire nearly a year ago. They discussed the specific responsibilities he would undertake, particularly focused on repositioning energy in a country blessed with substantial energy resources. Throughout this process, el-Rufai kept the president informed, briefing him on necessary actions. During this time, el-Rufai had no reason to doubt the president’s intentions.
Soon after, a team of technocrats was assembled, including top consultants from leading firms such as BCG and McKinsey. Their sole objective was to formulate strategies and action plans to breathe new life into the dilapidated power sector. This team recognized the need for closer collaboration between the gas and power sectors, operating under a well-defined policy-making framework. The team included legal experts and specialists from donor agencies, dedicating endless hours to establishing transformative policy and strategic leadership structures capable of overseeing the urgently required and now even more crucial transformation that Nigeria desperately needed.
One key aspect was the creation of a Ministry of Energy with a Minister of Energy and a Minister of State for Gas Development. Plans were devised to better engage the Nigerian investment community in revitalizing the electricity sector, particularly in transmission and distribution. Additionally, a plan was outlined to divest the government’s remaining 40% equity in Distribution Companies (DisCos).
A comprehensive plan was also laid out to achieve these goals by addressing the liabilities burdening the balance sheets of the Distribution Companies (Discos) while fostering their controlled growth. To demonstrate unwavering commitment at the highest echelons of the government, a proposal was made to establish a Presidential Energy Council, to be chaired by the president, providing essential political backing for the rejuvenation of the struggling sector.
In a conference room at the Presidential Villa, President Tinubu received a presentation on August 9th, highlighting the substantial progress accomplished by el-Rufai and his team of experts. However, it soon became apparent that the well-intentioned plans for a credible revitalization of the power sector had once again faced sabotage at the highest levels of governance, mirroring the obstacles encountered during the tenures of Presidents Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, and Jonathan. When the former Governor of Kaduna State discussed the integration of gas and power under a Ministry of Energy, President Tinubu seemed to express reservations about the idea.
Similarly, just 24 hours before this, el-Rufai had met with the President to discuss the alleged security report that had caused delays in his Senate clearance for assuming the Ministerial position. However, the President stated that he had no knowledge of the report and assured el-Rufai that he would investigate the matter within 24 hours.
Curiously, when the matter concerning Festus Keyamo arose in the Senate, a recess was taken, and a swift visit to the Villa on the same day by the Senate President swiftly resolved the issue, leading to Keyamo’s clearance. This raises questions as to why it seemed challenging for Tinubu to address the cloud of uncertainty gathering around el-Rufai.
Nigeria operates as a constitutional monarchy, wherein the president holds significant authority, and as Abacha once reportedly remarked, if a certain issue or public outcry persists for weeks in Nigeria, it’s reasonable to suspect the involvement of the government itself or its agencies.
The whereabouts of this security report remain unknown. When was it authored, and who are its authors? What precisely are its contents, and what is the basis for the allegations it levels against el-Rufai? Did the creators of this “report” analyze its intelligence value before its dissemination? Furthermore, since when does the Senate President receive a security report from the Department of State Services (DSS) before the President himself?
These questions may remain unanswered, but it appears that, in the eyes of some, el-Rufai, no longer a governor, has become expendable.
So, where did things take a wrong turn? What’s the compelling reason behind the urgency and desperation in orchestrating the apparent downfall of el-Rufai from power?
The first indication that difficulties lay ahead for el-Rufai’s ministerial confirmation may have emerged when it was suggested last week that a former governor from a PDP-controlled state had been approached by certain interests within the APC. These individuals sought to collaborate with some senators from Kaduna to oppose el-Rufai’s nomination on the Senate floor.
These senators apparently staunchly declined the proposal, even when enticed with financial incentives. Current indications imply that the initial resistance originated from influential figures, particularly two individuals, one from the northern region and another from the southern part of Nigeria. These figures are already forming alliances, aiming to succeed Tinubu, and they perceive potential risks in el-Rufai’s elevation to the cabinet, especially in a significant role that could potentially pave the way for him to become the President’s favored protege.
According to a political commentator, any northern governor or politician aspiring to be president views Nasir el-Rufai as a formidable rival, particularly if he proves successful in his role as Energy Minister. This perspective positions el-Rufai as a top contender from the north, leading discussions about a successor to Asiwaju.
El-Rufai held firm in his belief that power should shift to the south, a stance that was known to Tinubu, who sought to bring him closer, even before the presidential party primaries of the previous year. The question arises: when did it become expedient to distance themselves from el-Rufai?
El-Rufai consistently displayed fearlessness, perhaps being the sole governor from the north who confronted Buhari and staunchly demanded relentless and uncompromising action against militants, dismissing the idea of granting them amnesty, which some individuals within Buhari’s circle, including elements within the military and national security establishment, advocated.
The ease with which he is now labeled a religious fanatic raises concerns. Whatever actions el-Rufai took during his eight years in office are part of the public record, and it shouldn’t be challenging to uncover these facts. While he had disagreements with Christian leaders from southern Kaduna, his supporters insist that there is no evidence to support claims that he orchestrated violence or senseless killings in the state, neither in the last eight years nor at any other time.
Nasir el-Rufai appears to be a victim of a conspiracy that appears to be driven not by the national interest but by furthering the personal interests and ambitions of a small yet influential group of individuals connected to the President. This situation raises significant concerns, especially considering that such events are occurring so early in the tenure of this administration.
