In a period of abundant oil revenue for producers, Nigeria faces economic challenges, underscoring the need for a comprehensive examination of its national oil company, which has struggled to maximize the country’s oil and gas resources for the benefit of its citizens.
President Bola Tinubu, during his inauguration on May 29, emphasized the necessity for a thorough review of monetary policy. However, when comparing the performance of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to other national oil companies, it becomes apparent that this “review” should encompass more than just the Central Bank of Nigeria.
For instance, Saudi Aramco reported a record profit of $160 billion last year, making it the largest publicly traded firm in terms of profit. In contrast, NNPCL did not generate sufficient revenue from oil sales to support the government’s budget.
Nigeria, as Africa’s top oil producer with 37 billion barrels in reserves, only produced an average of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2022. In comparison, Saudi Arabia, with 258 billion barrels in reserves, averaged over 11.5 million barrels per day in 2022.
Nigeria’s neighboring countries, Angola and Algeria, with reserves of 9 billion and 12 billion barrels respectively, also lag behind in production, averaging 1.1 million barrels per day. At Nigeria’s current production rate, its reserves could last for approximately 55 years, whereas Saudi Arabia has approximately 70 years of reserves at a rate five times that of Nigeria.
This discrepancy underscores that Nigeria is not extracting the full potential value from its oil resources, especially at a time when oil revenue is crucial to bolster declining income and stabilize its currency. In the second quarter of this year, Saudi Aramco paid substantial cash dividends totaling $29.38 billion, with a significant portion directed to the government, while NNPCL’s financial performance was hindered by subsidies.
Oil mess
“The oil industry has been grappling with numerous challenges, and the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) stands out as one of the few positive developments in recent years. From issues like oil subsidies to non-operational refineries and oil theft, the sector has fallen short of its potential,” remarked Adewale-Smart Oyerinde, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association.
At the heart of this turmoil lies the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), the nation’s oil firm. Tasked with overseeing 445,000 barrels of Nigeria’s oil production share through various contracts with local and international oil partners, the company has resorted to crude-for-refined-products swaps over the years due to its inability to maintain functional refineries.
Back in 2010, when the NNPCL initiated these opaque oil swaps, its refineries were operating at a meager 20 percent of their capacity. The following year, due to banks’ reluctance to finance more open-account imports that incurred a deficit of over $3 billion, the government started granting waivers to marketers, ushering in an era of fraudulent petrol subsidies.
Refinery mismanagement
During President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure, Nigeria allocated over N11 trillion to subsidies, as per official government data. This staggering sum could have been used to construct and equip an entirely new refinery. Despite the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) claiming to have invested billions of naira in refurbishing its aging refineries, they remain non-operational and accrue substantial personnel expenses.
While the government has expressed intentions for the Port Harcourt refineries to commence production in December, there are concerns about their capacity due to insufficient crude output. Additionally, the NNPCL has already committed 67 percent of its oil production share to the Dangote Refinery, which could pose a challenge to other local refineries. Unless Nigeria can achieve a daily production rate of 2 million barrels, the country will continue to face significant challenges in the oil sector.
Business operating models
Another aspect requiring reevaluation is the operating model of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). It utilizes Joint Venture Agreements with both local and international oil companies to operate onshore and shallow water oil wells. While NNPCL holds a 60 percent stake in these agreements, it frequently falls short in contributing its share of costs, resulting in industry-wide cash call arrears.
Many of these fields face challenges such as sabotage and issues with local communities, leading NNPCL’s multinational partners to withdraw. According to Nigerian law, these companies must decommission these fields, essentially restoring them environmentally to their original state, which incurs substantial costs. To address this, they have opted to sell their stakes to local oil companies, but NNPCL has resisted this arrangement. Companies like Shell, ExxonMobil, and more recently, ENI, have encountered difficulties in exiting onshore assets due to NNPCL’s claims of the right of first refusal. In the case of ExxonMobil, NNPCL took the matter to the Federal High Court in an attempt to block the deal. President Tinubu’s administration, with its determination to maximize oil and gas resources, may ultimately influence NNPCL to cooperate with these changes.
Low production
Despite its insistence on having the right of first refusal in divestment deals, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) struggles to generate as much value from the fields it operates compared to other local producers like Aradel and Seplat.
One of its subsidiaries, the Nigeria Petroleum Development Company, established in 1988, holds ownership or partial ownership of over two dozen oil and gas blocks, surpassing the holdings of many OPEC countries. However, a staggering 70 percent of its fields remain inactive. Among the ones in operation, most are engaged in costly financial and technical contracts with third-party entities.
Natural gas underperforms
Russia’s conflict with Ukraine caused turbulence in the oil and gas market. While countries with substantial reserves profited, Nigeria faced challenges. For instance, Russia, boasting the world’s largest gas reserves at 38 trillion cubic meters, earns nearly $1 billion from gas sales. In contrast, Nigeria, with about one-third of Africa’s gas reserves, struggles to maximize its resource earnings.
The Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) has been a key player in exploiting Nigeria’s gas resources, but it faces its own set of difficulties. During a recent visit to President Tinubu, Philip Mshelbila, MD/CEO of NLNG, cited pipeline vandalism as a constraint on production, resulting in revenue loss for the government.
Furthermore, multiple taxation from various government agencies and frequent amendments to the Finance Act disrupt corporate planning and hinder investor confidence and opportunities in the sector.
Despite the removal of subsidies, the Nigerian government has sought to promote natural gas usage for vehicles, but insufficient investments have impeded progress in utilizing the country’s abundant gas resources.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), as a government entity, has operated according to government directives, which sometimes conflict with market realities. Given Nigeria’s challenging fiscal situation, this approach may no longer be tenable.
Mele Kyari, the group CEO of NNPCL, mentioned at a conference that the company now acts as a state agent facilitating Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) to ensure value delivery. However, relying heavily on PSAs, in which Nigeria did not invest equity, poses significant risks and makes the country dependent on international oil companies.
Under Kyari’s leadership, NNPCL has worked to address issues related to the fiscal and regulatory environment based on the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). However, it has not yet succeeded in attracting new investments.
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