Just over three months ago, there was optimism in the markets as President Bola Tinubu took office, with hopes of swift reforms. Unlike his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, known as “Baba Go-slow,” Tinubu made bold moves, including removing the petrol subsidy and suspending the central bank governor. Foreign news agencies even dubbed him “Baba-Go-Fast,” and reforms were associated with his name in endorsements from multilateral agencies and investment banks. On his first day in office, Nigerian stocks gained significantly. Tinubu’s Policy Advisory Council highlighted tasks like addressing oil theft, boosting oil and gas production, and resolving cash shortages. However, after 100 days, concerns are growing about the execution of Tinubu’s approach, with doubts about sustaining reform momentum or fully unlocking Nigeria’s economic potential. The removal of petrol subsidies without a clear plan for palliatives has caused labor union confrontations and uncertainty. Critics argue that the government’s palliative plan lacked clarity and was belated. The National Union of Banks, Insurance, and Financial Institutions Employees (NUBIFIE) announced a two-day strike, aligning with the Nigeria Labour Congress. Experts emphasize that addressing downstream sector issues, such as trade finance, strategic stock guarantees, and access to crude oil for refineries, should have preceded subsidy removal. They advocate for palliatives like public transportation and freight of agricultural produce. Despite bold moves, Nigeria struggles to rebuild confidence in its foreign exchange market after adopting a flexible exchange rate in June. Dollar supply remains limited, pressuring the naira and widening the gap between official and parallel market rates. The Central Bank’s lack of transparency in forex allocation, blacklisted item restrictions, and undisclosed dollar reserves contribute to currency instability. Analysts express doubts about Tinubu’s ministerial list, with concerns over recycled politicians and their ability to drive meaningful change in the country’s economic trajectory.
