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Is the emergence of a multipolar world, characterized by the rivalry between BRICS and G7 nations, contributing to the resurgence of coups in Africa?

A surge in military-led government changes in French-speaking West and Central Africa has raised concerns of a return to the era of widespread dystopia and tyranny that prevailed in the continent between the 1960s and the end of the Cold War.

During the Cold War, the global power dynamic was characterized by bipolarity, with intense competition between the United States and the Soviet Union for global dominance. In Africa, this rivalry led to interventions and alliances that influenced the continent’s political landscape.

Africa experienced a significant number of coup attempts and successful coups, with at least 106 of them succeeding, out of a global total of 214 since 1950. Data compiled by researchers Jonathan M. Powell and Clayton L. Thyne revealed that nearly all African nations have faced at least one coup attempt since 1950.

Former French colonies in Africa, especially between 1958 and 2008, were particularly susceptible to coups, and this trend has continued with six of the seven coups since 2019 occurring in these nations. Twelve of the 20 coups in the sub-region since 2010 have also taken place there.

The end of the Cold War marked a shift in the global system, and a push for neoliberal democratic reforms began in Africa, aiming to replace authoritarianism and military takeovers with political pluralism and the rule of law. Coups were expected to become rare, and dictatorships were supposed to decline.

However, recent times have witnessed a resurgence of coups in Africa, with military officers taking control of governments in countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Guinea, Chad, Sudan, and Gabon. Researchers have noted that foreign powers seeking strategic influence in Africa have been involved in these coups, tolerating local politics and authoritarianism as long as their strategic interests are served.

French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed concerns about the increasing risk of coups in the region, emphasizing the importance of restoring democracy. Observers suggest that this trend may spread from Francophone Africa to Anglophone Africa due to dissatisfaction with economic outcomes in those countries.

The widening “coup belt” across the Sahel, West Africa, and Central Africa reflects a rejection of US and Western influence. Years of Western dominance through aid, loans, sanctions, and threats have left many Africans unimpressed, as the continent has made limited economic progress during this period.

The rise in coups is attributed to governance deficits, unmet citizenship entitlements, frustrated populations, growing insecurity, and continued foreign influence. These factors persist within a broader context that allows immediate causes to spark coups. Despite US promises of economic partnerships, many Africans perceive Western interests in Africa as primarily political and economically driven.

In conclusion, the recent surge in coups in Africa is a complex phenomenon influenced by both domestic and international factors, and it challenges the assumptions of post-Cold War democratization and stability on the continent.

Russia and China are taking advantage of anti-Western sentiments in Africa by spreading propaganda and challenging Western dominance in the region. The BRICS group of nations, which originally came together to address finance, development, and trade issues, has expanded to represent a counterweight to Western powers in a world marked by growing multipolarity and strategic rivalry.

Andrew Cheatham, a senior advisor at the United States Institute for Peace, notes that the BRICS bloc has garnered significant attention worldwide, aiding China and Russia’s campaign to pit “the West” against “the rest.”

Kamissa Camara, Mali’s former minister of foreign affairs, suggests that Russia’s role in African coups and allegations of its toxic influence in the continent may be overstated. She believes that the display of Russian flags after coups is a result of propaganda rather than significant Russian influence, especially among the region’s youth who often aspire to move to France or the United States.

However, it’s crucial to consider internal politics, security, and the interactions between countries in addition to foreign influences.

Deji Olutoye, a lawyer, points out that the recent coup in Gabon, a resource-rich but relatively stable country, sends a clear signal about the state of democracies in Africa. Many African democracies have struggled to mature beyond the mere fulfillment of election cycles, indicating a broader issue with the democratic transition and governance on the continent.

There is a significant legitimacy gap in African democracies, not only in the quality of elections but also in the outcomes and benefits for the people. This gap has been observed in various ways across the continent. In countries like Gabon, Togo, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea, it has resulted in long-standing, unresponsive regimes and dynasties. The coup in Gabon serves as a clear signal to these other entrenched regimes, particularly in neighboring Cameroon, where President Biya’s rule has fueled separatist discontent. In parts of Africa where the quality of election cycles is declining, Ali Bongo’s overthrow should be seen as a wake-up call.

The challenge to majority rule in Africa, according to Camara, lies in the fact that the Western understanding of democracy has not been very successful in some African countries, even those recently affected by coups. She hopes that the youth in these countries will define their own path and shape the institutions they want to see. Additionally, she emphasizes the importance of international partners focusing on the private sector, which can create the jobs needed for the millions of young Africans seeking a better future in the coming years.

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