“In line with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) directives, the Defence Headquarters has initiated preparatory measures for the potential mobilization of troops and equipment for a potential confrontation with the junta in the Republic of Niger, as revealed by Sunday PUNCH’s investigations.
However, the ECOWAS Parliament is divided over the use of military force to compel the junta, which seized power by overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, to step down and reinstate the Nigerien President.
Sources indicate that the Nigerian military high command has instructed the service chiefs to compile and submit war necessities, including personnel numbers, equipment, logistics, and financial estimates to the Chief of Defence Staff. This marks the preliminary stage in the planning process to assemble the human and material resources required for the planned military intervention in Niger.
A leaked memo suggests that approximately two battalions would be needed for the military operation against the junta in Niger Republic. A battalion is typically a military unit consisting of 300 to 1,000 soldiers led by a lieutenant colonel, subdivided into several companies, usually commanded by a major or captain.
However, a military source has stated that the total number of troops should be at least “10 times more than that of the enemy.” Besides Nigeria, ECOWAS member states such as Senegal, Benin, and Ivory Coast are expected to contribute troops to the standby force.
ECOWAS activated its standby force for potential military action against the junta in Niger Republic following a decision made at an extraordinary summit of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of States and Government hosted by President Bola Tinubu in Abuja.
The junta, led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, has defied calls and diplomatic pressure to reinstate Bazoum, who has been under house arrest since the takeover on July 26. ECOWAS imposed sanctions on the francophone country to compel the military leaders to reinstate the ousted president.
Despite a one-week ultimatum and attempts by various delegations, including a visit from former Nigerian military Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar, the junta remains unyielding. They have also threatened to harm Bazoum if ECOWAS initiates a military operation to restore democracy in the country.
In response to the situation, the Central Bank of Nigeria imposed further sanctions, preventing Nigerien banks from conducting financial transactions with their Nigerian counterparts, extending these restrictions to the coup plotters and their associates.
As per the update, the Nigerian military authorities have commenced the necessary preparations to implement the resolutions of the West African leaders, with the Defence Headquarters coordinating the deployment of troops and equipment for the operation.”
“At present, there has been no official deployment, but the preparations are underway. The services are required to submit detailed requirements, including the number of personnel, equipment, and funds necessary for the mobilization of troops to Niger. The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) will oversee the coordination of the troop deployment for the operation in Niger,” stated the source.
Regarding the exact number of troops to be deployed, another source stated, “Military deployments are typically kept confidential, but the total force will depend on the contributions from all ECOWAS member states. The combined force should be at least ten times larger than that of the adversary.”
However, when questioned about the potential impact on ongoing domestic security operations, the Director of Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Tukur Gusau, assured Nigerians that the country’s participation in the military operation in Niger would not affect the ongoing efforts to combat insecurity within the country.
Gusau’s response came amid concerns from security experts that military involvement in Niger might impact ongoing operations against various criminal elements across Nigeria.
Regarding the implications for ongoing operations against groups such as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), the Eastern Security Network (ESN), Boko Haram terrorists, and bandits, Gusau stated, “I want to assure you that it will not have any adverse effects.”
However, the DHQ spokesman declined to provide details regarding the preparations for the planned military intervention in Niger.
In the meantime, members of the ECOWAS Parliament have expressed differing opinions on the actions to be taken in response to the coup in Niger.
During a virtual extraordinary meeting, twenty-two parliamentarians discussed the political crisis in Niger Republic. While some parliamentarians expressed support for dialogue and diplomacy, others called for measures to prevent the rise of military coups against democratic governments in the region.
Those in opposition to military intervention have voiced concerns that it would inflict severe hardships on the masses.
Idris Wase, the First Deputy Speaker of the ECOWAS Parliament, criticized the sub-regional military chiefs, suggesting they may have economic motives driving their eagerness to intervene in Niger.
Wase cautioned, “We need to be cautious not to initiate what we cannot resolve. Consider the Russia-Ukraine war; initially seen as a short conflict, it has now extended, causing extensive economic losses and widespread loss of life and property.”
“The sub-regional military chiefs,” he continued, “are well aware of the economic gains they might reap from military intervention in Niger. Many of them are tainted by corruption. A military intervention in Niger would negatively impact 60 percent of Nigeria, particularly northern Nigeria.”
Supporting Wase’s stance, a member of the Nigerian delegation to the ECOWAS Parliament, Ali Ndume, criticized President Tinubu for not seeking approval from the National Assembly before closing the Nigerian-Niger border and halting electricity supply to the francophone nation.
Ndume asserted, “We represent the interests of the people, and any actions taken should align with the desires of our citizens. President Tinubu, the ECOWAS Chairman, communicated to the Nigerian Senate about the planned military intervention in Niger, but the Senate vehemently opposed the use of force. Members instead favor adopting dialogue to resolve the situation.”
He added, “President Tinubu doesn’t have the authority to close the Niger-Nigeria border and cut off electricity without the Nigerian National Assembly’s approval. The sanctions imposed are affecting innocent people, not the junta.”
Ali Djibo from Niger Republic stated that over 9,000 schools had been closed due to the crisis, emphasizing that military action rarely proves to be the best solution.
Djibo emphasized, “War would only exacerbate the economic challenges already faced by the people in the sub-region. If a coup occurred in Nigeria or Cote d’Ivoire tomorrow, where would ECOWAS find troops to confront the Nigerian or Ivorian military? How many borders would we close?”
“We must also remember,” Djibo concluded, “that if we apply the ECOWAS treaty, it should be universally applicable.”
Nonetheless, certain parliamentarians believed that dialogue and diplomacy had not successfully curbed the prevalence of military intervention in West Africa.
Linda Ikpeazu, who supported the notion of military intervention, pointed out that the absence of consequences in previous instances, notably in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, contributed to the situation in Niger Republic.
Ikpeazu stated that the regional body needed to take action, as it could no longer tolerate allowing wrongdoings to go unpunished. However, she expressed concern that sanctions would disproportionately affect ordinary citizens.
She explained, “How effective was the approach ECOWAS used in resolving political crises in Guinea Conakry, Mali, and Burkina Faso? The decision ECOWAS makes to resolve the political turmoil in Niger will depend on the effectiveness of the diplomatic approach adopted in countries already under military rule.”
“If this isn’t done,” she warned, “it implies we are tacitly approving coups, understanding that the sub-regional body, ECOWAS, lacks punitive measures.”
Adebayo Balogun noted that what ECOWAS proposed was not a full-scale war but rather a military action against the junta.
“ECOWAS leaders are not discussing declaring war on Niger, but instead intervening to remove the coup plotters from power because Niger is a signatory to the ECOWAS revised protocol on non-military intervention,” he observed.
Bashir Dawodu emphasized that while dialogue was being pursued, the military option should remain a viable consideration.
He also cautioned those banking on Russia’s support to defend the junta, reminding them that the European country alone could not ensure their protection.
Doctor’s visit to Bazoum and family:
President Bazoum received a visit from his doctor on Saturday. It was reported that the physician brought food for the ousted leader, his wife, and their 20-year-old son, who are currently detained with him.
A member of Bazoum’s entourage informed AFP, “The president had a visit from his doctor today. He’s doing well, given the circumstances.”
Concerns have arisen over the health and detention conditions of Bazoum, his wife, and son since the military took power and detained them on July 26.
The European Union and the African Union, among others, have expressed alarm for Bazoum’s situation.
The UN rights chief, Volker Turk, stated that Bazoum’s reported detention conditions “could amount to inhuman and degrading treatment, in violation of international human rights law.”
Top US diplomat, Antony Blinken, expressed his disappointment at the military’s refusal to release Bazoum’s family, viewing it as a “demonstration of goodwill.”
Protests Erupt in Kano:
On Saturday, a group of Kano residents staged a peaceful protest against the planned military action in Niger Republic. The spokesperson for the protesters, who remained anonymous, explained that they took to the streets to express their displeasure with any potential military intervention in Niger.
The protesters conveyed their solidarity with the people of Niger, chanting slogans like “Nigeriens are our brothers and family members,” and expressing their desire for peace, stating that war against Niger would be unjust, alleging it as a ploy by Western forces.
During the demonstration, participants waved both Nigerian and Niger flags, and brandished placards bearing anti-war messages. The protest eventually dispersed on the busy Ibrahim Taiwo Road in Kano.
Response from Authorities:
The state police command spokesperson, SP Abdullahi Haruna, initially promised to provide details after contacting the Divisional Police Officer in the area, but had not responded by the time of filing this report.
Legal Perspectives:
Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Chief Mike Ozekhome, emphasized that President Tinubu could not deploy Nigerian troops to Niger without the approval of the National Assembly. He stressed that, constitutionally, the President must obtain full and explicit Senate approval before declaring war or engaging Nigerian troops in external conflicts.
Ozekhome warned that circumventing this process would be unconstitutional and might even be treated as a criminal offense. He pointed out that such actions could lead to international consequences, referring to them as war crimes that could be prosecuted at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Chief Yomi Alliyu (SAN) echoed this sentiment, stating that the President must not deploy troops without the National Assembly’s express approval. Alliyu emphasized that such a move would be both an impeachable offense and a criminal act. He called for diplomacy to be the preferred approach, stressing that a military intervention in Niger could have dire consequences for Nigeria, potentially inviting counterattacks and attracting international superpowers.
Another senior lawyer, Mr. Ahmed Raji (SAN), expressed a different view, noting that he did not believe President Tinubu had indicated the country was going to war. Raji highlighted that the President mentioned that dialogue was ongoing and clarified that ECOWAS had called for a standby military force in response to the junta.
Security Experts’ Perspective:
Security experts, however, cautioned against a military intervention in Niger, considering Nigeria’s internal security challenges. Oladele Fajana pointed out that Nigeria’s current state made it unsuitable to deploy troops for military intervention in Niger. He noted that addressing the internal security threats was already challenging, and diverting troops to Niger could exacerbate the situation, potentially allowing criminals to exploit the reduced presence of security forces.
Jackson Ojo, a security analyst, also opposed the proposed military action, highlighting Nigeria’s ongoing security crisis and suggesting that focusing on another country while Nigeria faces internal turmoil would be misguided. He warned that Nigeria’s military is already stretched thin, and the additional burden of a foreign intervention could lead the country to collapse.
